StarLink and Southern Macon County

In the past several months there have been quite a few news articles and discussions about a new internet service under development by SpaceX called StarLink. We have received a number questions and comments from residents in our area about the availability of this service, and whether or not it might be preferable to the network that is being developed by LittleT and its partners.

StarLink will be a new satellite-based internet service. The big difference between this new service and existing satellite services like Hughesnet and Viasat, is that the StartLink satellites are being placed in low earth orbit (LEO) instead of high earth or geosynchronous orbit (342 miles altitude vs 22,236 miles altitude). This will allow StarLink to deliver their internet signal at a much lower latency than conventional satellite systems making it more usable and competitive with ground-based systems. However this low earth orbit is also the source for a number of the controversies that SpaceX is facing regarding their plans, as it requires thousands of satellites to cover their service area.

A system like StarLink has never been built before, and the development is still very new, so there are still many unknowns about the service.

Cost

The actual cost for service once available is unknown. The speculation from comments by Elon Musk is that the base service will run in the $80-$100 range, with a one time cost of $200-$300 for the receiver terminal and router. However, SpaceX is spending billions of dollars to build and launch all of the satellites, and to build all of the receiver terminals required to make the service possible. At some point they will need to recoup their massive investment costs through service contracts, and so actual service cost will be dependent on adoption rate and any subsidies or grants they are able to win.

Legal Battles

The placement of low earth orbit satellites in large numbers has already started to have an impact on the night sky and astronomy. This has brought the SpaceX and its StarLink program under fire and the target of injunctions and lawsuits all over the world. It remains to be seen how effective SpaceX will be in defending their program and addressing the unintended impacts of their satellite constellation. Low earth orbit satellites are also not fixed in position, meaning they constantly move through the sky as they fly around the globe. There are currently a number countries voicing objections about the StarLink satellites flying over their space.

Permission and Licensing

Though SpaceX has secured permission from the US and Canada, they are still in negotiations with the EU, Russia, and elsewhere to obtain rights to operate and fly satellites beyond the North American continent. Foreign agency and legal challenges of this nature can be very time consuming and expensive.

Availability of Service

This is by far the most asked question. The StarLink service offering is dependent on the number of satellites in place, which makes availability dependent on satellite production and launch schedules. The launch schedules are directly impacted by weather, and also affected and can be delayed by permission and licensing.

As of the latest launch this past spring, SpaceX plans to begin private beta testing by fall 2020, with a public beta to start a few months later. At present, SpaceX only has enough satellites aloft (420) to provide service between 44 and 52 degrees latitude. This means you will need to live in a narrow strip of North America between Chicago and Vancouver to initially receive the StarLinik signal. Beta testing of service in the Southern US will not start until sometime in 2021, depending on how long it takes for SpaceX to get hundreds or thousands of additional satellites into space, in position, and active. Availability of actual paid service will not start until all the testing has been completed, so maybe end of 2022 or a bit later for this area if all goes well, and SpaceX does not encounter any significant snags or delays.

What is Latency, and Why does it Matter

Latency is the measure of time it takes between your actions on a device or computer and when servers on the internet respond back to you. Latency can have a very big impact on the usability of your internet service. If all you do is stream Netflix or Hulu and send a few emails, latency does not matter a great deal. However if you tele work from home, wish to use Zoom or WebEx, etc., latency can have a huge impact.

Any latency measurement under 100ms (mili seconds) is considered acceptable, and this number is the maximum threshold the FCC allows for an internet service provider to qualify for specific federal grants and loans. Traditional high earth orbit Satellite systems can only deliver an internet signal with very large latencies, typically more than 500ms. This is mostly due to the very high altitude (22,236miles) of the satellites, and as such traditional satellite internet services are ineligible for many federal grant programs.

SpaceX claims that StarLink will be able to deliver latencies lower than 50ms, which is on par with ground-based networks. This is feasible because of the low earth altitude of the StarLink satellites (342miles), but also has yet to be demonstrated as there are many other factors that contribute to latency besides satellite altitude. The FCC has stated that they are not convinced it will be possible to acheive less than 100ms, even for a LEO satellite-based delivery system. If StarLink is unable to deliver less than 100ms of latency, SpaceX will not be eligible for many federal grants and subsidies that might offset costs to rural areas such as ours, and possibly keeping the cost of the StarLink service relatively high to all.

Performance and Reliability

SpaceX claims that StarLink will be able to deliver 1 Gbps service, which is competitive with cable or fiber internet. That remains to be demonstrated, but it is likely that they will eventually get there. Like all internet delivery systems, StarLink will suffer from congestion during times of high usage. However, because it uses thousands of satellites vs one or two fixed satellites, it should be able to perform better than conventional satellite-based systems. How well the StarLink system will perform under load remains to be seen.

StarLink is still a satellite wireless internet system, and all wireless delivery systems are impacted by weather and other atmospheric conditions. This means that StarLink will experience weather related performance drops and outages similar to Hughesnet and Viasat.

What About Other LEO Internet Services Competing with StarLink

Amazon Kuiper Project Though Kuiper just received FCC approval, and Jeff Bezos says he is investing $10B, they do not have published plans to launch their first satellite until 2026. Much can happen between now and then, including SpaceX completely dominating the market.

OneWeb (formerly WorldVu) OneWeb filed for chapter 11 backruptcy back in March of 2020 and laid off most of its employees. Though they have a handful of satellites aloft that they are continuing to maintain, they will have to struggle through bankruptcy and hope for future investments if they are allowed by the courts to continue. Most consider them dead at this point.

Telesat LEO Telesat launched a single demo satellite back in 2018, but have yet to move forward with their LEO program. They are proposing a different approach, as their platform will use 5G wireless vs a proprietary internet link. How this plays out remains to be seen.

Our view is that LEO internet is so closely tied to launch capability, only SpaceX has a shot of making this work right now. They can absorb/amortize much of the StarLink launch costs in with their other launch business. None of the other players yet have this ability, which is a huge hurdle for them to be competitive. Also, as low earth space begins to be filled with these satellites, it is believed that there will be more push back due to the night sky clutter and other impacts of the technology.

Summary

In contrast to StarLink, the network under development by LittleT and its partners will be a ground-based fiber to the home (FTTH) system. When the fiber choice is available, it provides the greatest reliability, highest available speeds, and best future growth potential. Fiber is a proven technology that is well understood, and eligible for all federal and state grants and subsidies.

StarLink is definitely a promising new technology. Given the track record of SpaceX, and the potential revenue to be gained by providing this service globally, it will happen. However history shows that it will likely take longer to reach the masses than the claims. There are just too many hurdles and obstacles for SpaceX to overcome for there to be no delays. StarLink may ultimately become a viable alternative internet source for many Southern Macon County residents by the end of 2022 or later. The good thing about having viable alternatives is competition, and its effect on lowering service cost.

LittleT June Update

Tony Deakins, Little T Broadband

LTBS has concluded its survey of residents and businesses within its service area. The overall response exceeded expectations, and your individual responses were extremely informative. We now are working through the process of distilling data into information, and will report more on that in the next update toward the end of July~early August. Again, thank all of you who responded to the survey. 

The engineering on "Fast Start" has been completed from an LTBS perspective. This led to further collaboration with the Macon County Board of Commissioners and BalsamWest FiberNet. That collaboration has culminated into a funding plan being developed by the County and BalsamWest. The 'particulars' of that plan should be finalized prior to the end of July; hopefully in time to be described in the July update. 

The funding plan through the County will cover the US 441 leg of Fast Start. The response from the Golden Leaf Fund for the Highlands leg is still pending. While it is the smaller of the two 'legs' to be completed via Fast Start, its importance is, nonetheless, mission critical.

Going forward, we still need to raise more funding to enable distribution of services beyond Fast Start via grants both from government and private providers. To that end, we need all the help we can get in the area of grant research and writing ... and, eventually grant management. 

We also want to assist our two community associations in finding grants and other funding to start working on local programs assisting residents and businesses through the combination of community resources and high-speed internet access. Now is the time to start making actionable all of those good ideas we all have expressed regarding the community value-add were broadband available.

In this period of pandemic constraints on "normal" life, we need to look forward, in a planning sense, to when Covid-19 is suppressed but the changes it's made to our lives continue. These chances include telemedicine, remote learning, the educational "slide", etc.  Those having access to broadband will, I imagine, transition fine, grow, and prosper. Those without, will doubtlessly struggle with a reduced quality of life. We can't let that be us. 

Thank You To All That Participated in the Little T Survey

As of 4:00PM today, we have closed down the Little T Survey.

Thank you to all who participated and provided valuable information about the internet services in our area, and your desires for new service. We are working to tally results and will post a summary in the coming days.

Little T April Update

Tony Deakins, Little T Broadband

The following article was published in the April edition of the Scaly Mountain newsletter.
Since the creation of the original article, our survey response count has reached 213. If you have not already done so and live in the Otto or Scaly areas, please respond to our survey. You can get started by clicking the Survey link at the top of the web page.

To date, we have roughly 187 responses. I would very much like to see this move to over 200, as that is a very strong response for surveys of this nature indicating high interest. So, yes; I would love for people to complete responses to this survey if they have not already. And, we thank everyone who has provided us with this information. It has been telling. Of the responses we received, 47% work at home,26% have school age children at home and 13% have need of telemedical support at home. We are still applying analytics to the data these surveys provide, so I expect additional indicators within the near future. Again, thanks to everyone who has provided us with this information and hopefully more will do so within the next couple of weeks. Hey, what else do you have to do during “lock down”?

I recently published a letter that appeared in the Macon County News and was submitted as well to the Franklin Press. The article emphasized the value of internet access in times like this showing its value beyond simply an entertainment medium. As this emergency persists into May and probably longer, internet access becomes even more vital. I encourage people throughout Western North Carolina and, in particular, our South Macon County communities, to write their elected officials in Raleigh to help show the irrationality of the North Carolina legislature in its being more a part of the problem than any solution to rural broadband access. The supposed “Great Grant” is a paltry and ill-organized band aid to a problem that deserves a much greater priority than it has so far been given. Hopefully, this current pandemic and its “stay at home” mandates reinforce the need for rural broadband access. At minimum, any prohibitions on local communities providing themselves, using local tax and public grant money, with this vital resource should be fully rescinded. Again: Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way.

As for any of the current approaches to satellite services, I wish them well and hope it ultimately works. There should be some consolation for not being able to see the stars at night through the cloud of large and small comsats. Right now, that technology is still in its “hype” phase and there are several issues that remain to be demonstrated as solved. Not the least of these is “latency” which, the last time I saw any progress reports, still was around 700 milliseconds. And, that is just the part directly attributable to satellite round-trip. This issue caused the FCC to withhold recognition of satellite-delivered internet as a generally viable solution and, as such, not eligible for federal grants.

Satellite delivered internet is focused largely, if not quietly, on the air travel and ships-at-sea market which is expected to be huge within the near future and forms a revenue base rich for content providers. This market is not as sensitive to latency and other issues as the more terrestrial markets. Also, certain terrestrial markets such as found in the broad plains and prairies of the western U.S., Australia, Argentina and the Russian steppes likely would benefit. But, for those of us in “bumpy” and “leafy” locales, not so much. And, we are, if anything, not a revenue rich market. So, ask yourself, if you were the business genius behind the several versions of “Sky Net”-like start-ups, would you target a revenue-poor market? Oh, and did I mention, the FCC has denied the satellite companies access to federal grants due to the latency issues.

Little T Broadband in partnership with Balsam West Fibernet, has finalized the “Fast-Start” routes and cost estimates. “Fast-Start” is a forerunner to the larger phased deployment. We will be requesting grant funding from the county. We will meet the “only existing ISPs need apply” requirement that caused us to not receive the funding from our last grant request (…despite the numerous rumors to the contrary). Also, we will be submitting requests to The Golden Leaf Fund and other smaller grant providers for funds to build this initial phase out. We thought we might get this up and running by the end of the year, but the pandemic has slowed everybody down substantially. Once this has marched-off into history, we will be able to reset expectations on when Fast-Start will begin providing service as well as the follow-on buildout plans.

Frontier Backruptcy

Tony Deakins, Little T Broadband

Recently, I received a number of phone calls regarding Frontier Communications’ announcement that it was entering bankruptcy. This is a ploy often used by large corporations for narrow purposes, such as thwarting a particular litigation or other claims. This, however, was not the case with Frontier, as they have struggled with a debt proportionately equal to the national debt of several countries. A debt so large, filing bankruptcy was more or less anticlimactic. With a major bond series coming eminently due, had they not taken this course, it was likely their bondholders would have forced the move.

So, what does this mean for Frontier’s Otto and Scaly Mountain customers? Well initially, not much. It likely will take the balance of this year to sort out the bankruptcy. In the longer term, there are risks that form up around the following circumstances. Frontier already has sold-off a number of its most profitable markets. In “restructuring” their debts, they may well have to convert more of their remaining profitable markets into cash. It is certain they will have to constrain outflows, which lead to reduction in employees and rigorous efforts to reduce operating costs. That is to say, they will have to quit spending money just short of turning out the lights.

One troubling cost reduction tactic is reducing their commitment to marginally or unprofitable markets ... of which we are one. Frontier won’t withdraw service from profit- challenged markets where federal or state regulators will not allow them to do so, until a replacement provider can be found. Unfortunately, North Carolina is not one of those states, and the current regime at the FCC is not likely to allow itself to be involved either. It will be a couple of years or more before this all plays out, so there is no immediate reason for panic. And, it won’t happen abruptly, either. We will see customer service become insidiously less responsive. Replacement of the ancient equipment operating currently in our communities is not likely to be updated. And then, there will be the appeal to the state to subsidize operations here to which – unless there is a material change in attitude in Raleigh – there will be no reply that will give us solace. And, the larger telecoms and ISPs already have demonstrated no interest in our communities.

All that notwithstanding, we have a bit of time here to move forward with currently the only initiative in unincorporated Macon County to bring forth a viable alternative: Little T Broadband Services. And, we are making progress, albeit inch by inch and row by row. Our greatest obstacle remains sourcing funding that is not otherwise prohibited by the state legislature, and that is scant few as it is. I don’t mean to say they won’t allow us to receive local government grants, rather they won’t allow local government to fund our grant requests. To offset the seemingly inevitable consequences of Frontier’s bankruptcy, we will need to garner more that good wishes from local funding sources, and we will have to work faster than the current pace. From here-on, it’s; lead, follow or move out of the way.

And, I promise the next posting will focus on good news ... and, there is some coming, so stay tuned.

LittleT Needs You!

As many of you know, Little T Broadband Services is working with its partners to develop new internet service in the Otto and Scaly Mountain communities. Unfortunately this is a long and expensive process. To make this a reality, we need to compile some information about our area to better understand the present need, and to help qualify for grant funding.

One way to help understand the need for high-speed service in our area is to find out who is interested in receiving it. We need to hear from members of our communities to develop a more accurate picture of who wants service, and in what types of service residents are interested.

The other way to understand the need in our area is to learn what type and quality of existing service residents and businesses are receiving today. To qualify for many types of federal and state grant funding, our area must be under-served, receiving less than 25Mbps DS / 3 MBps US, and in other cases receiving less than 10Mbps DS / 1 MBps US. Though some existing service information is available from the FCC, this is often inaccurate and indicates much higher rates of service than residents are actually receiving.

To help Little T better assess the community need, we are conducting our own survey. Though there have been regional surveys conducted in the past, much of this information was incomplete and not sufficient for our work. We encourage you to help us gather this information by responding. If you live in the Otto or Scaly Mountain area, please take the survey here.

Many thanks to all of our supporters.

How To Take This Survey

Little T Broadband Services
PO Box 376
Otto, NC 28763

LittleT Feburary Update

In September of 2019, the Macon County Board of County Commissioners voted 4:1 to provide a grant of $178,000 to Little T Broadband Services (LTBS… a 501(c)3 non-profit enterprise). Subsequent to that, the grant was essentially withdrawn by the County due to legal constraints. These constraints, prescribed in one of several NC statutes addressing grants, prevent local governments from actually funding any broadband-related grant to entities other than an established ISP. After several meetings between the county, LTBS, and on one occasion Balsam West, the County decided they can fund a grant to Balsam West. As Balsam West is an established ISP, the County believes they could fund a grant on their behalf for the same purposes as those included in the original LTBS request. While Balsam West was and remains amenable to this approach, the exact way in which it could be made to work is still being developed by LTBS and Balsam West.

LTBS will not be applying for the current round of USDA/RUS grants. Unfortunately the current requirements of this grant program foreclose any consideration of an application from LTBS or any other community driven initiative, as they are structured to favor established ISPs and telecommunication companies. We will revisit USDA/RUS when they announce another funding opportinity round later this year. In the meantime, we are pursuing other grant and funding opportunities.

We have also launched a “Fast-Start” initiative, with the objective of quickly bringing broadband to the Scaly and Otto Community Centers and Volunteer Fire Departments (VFDs). This  initiative would leverage existing HEMC fiber with new fiber extensions.  The plan remains in the formative stages, but we anticipate submitting another grant request to Macon County under the auspices of Balsam West and others within the next few weeks.

  1. LittleT State of the Union 2020
  2. Balsam West Selected
  3. A Win For LittleT
  4. Sept 10th Commissioner Meeting

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